ANÁLISE ESTATÍSTICA E DE PREVISÃO DO PREÇO DA SOJA NO ESTADO DE GOIÁS NA PROPOSTA DE ESTRATÉGIAS GOVERNAMENTAIS NO SETOR AGRÍCOLA BRASILEIRO

Abstract

This work aims to show the importance of the use of statistical methods for analysis and price forecasting in the Brazilian agricultural sector, specifically in relation to the soybean crop in the state of Goiás The database analyzed was provided by the Secretary of State for Management and planning of the State of Goiás (SEGPLAN). The variable studied was the monthly price per kg of soybeans in the period 1995-2011. Were used in linear regression statistical methods in order to provide a statistical model for predicting the price. The validation function is given by tests of hypotheses, caused in satisfactory results. In this sense, it is possible to work government strategies in relation to agricultural production in the state of Goiás using statistical methods studied, serving as a support tool. Index Terms - Linear Regression, Agriculture, Statistics, Pricing, Forecasting value, Econometrics.