THE ROLE OF COMMUNICATION IN FORECASTING FLOOD EVENTS AND PROTECTING URBAN POPULATIONS DURING SUCH DISASTERS

Abstract

Modern urban centres, particularlymetropolitan regions undergoing fast growth, have faced anincrease in floods, both in terms of their peak levels, and offrequency of occurrence. Protection systems meant tomitigate the consequences of such events require tools toforecast rainfall and flood (both for their timing and size, inthe real time, or for mapping flood-prone areas, so guidingthe urbanization process); design hydraulic structuresdedicated to control rivers, channels and other waterstreams; operate such structures in the real time; warn thepopulation and population-protection services during anevent, and assist teams trained to rescue citizens afterdisasters. The paper discusses the communication networkfor event forecast and warning, and presents an example ofmathematical modelling framework for flood forecastdeveloped for the State of São Paulo – including adiscussion on the role played by scientific communication inthe history of the continuous development of models.Index Terms ⎯ Communicating disasters, Telemetriccommunication, Flood warning, Flood forecast, Unithydrograph.